7: Vaccines and Cost Analysis

How Do Covid-19 Vaccines work?

How Long Do They Last?

Link Ref: https://youtu.be/yO1uGJxSjNw

Summarized:

• No one can tell
• Waiting on more data
• Expecting to be like the flu shot with the need to have a booster shot each year

Comparing Vaccines

Notes: 

1. During the trials, not one vaccinated person who got the virus was hospitalised or died.
2. This was a 100% efficacy rate against death and hospitalisation
3. "With each shot that goes into an arm, we come closer to ending this pandemic"

Inside the Lab that Invented the Covid-19 Vaccine

Cost Analysis (estimates only)

• There are 7,874,758,042 people in the world
• If the average vaccine cost is $20 USD per person (low estimate)
• The world wide cost for just one shot of the vaccine' is $157,495,160,860
  (One hundred fifty-seven billion four hundred ninety-five million one hundred sixty thousand eight hundred sixty USD)
• USA recommending minimum two shots with a third possibly within the year. No one knows if the third will be required but the USA have instructed the 'At Risk' to have a third within the year.
• Worse case scenario is 3 shots required = $.473 T for one set of vaccines

Comparison

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263102/pharmaceutical-market-worldwide-revenue-since-2001/

• Estimated minimum world wide Covid-19 vaccine revenue $.473 T
• Total revenues for the oil and gas             $2.11 T     (22.50%)
• Total revenue for the pharmac market     $1.26 T      (37.34%)

I have used rough figures and they only cover the cost of the vaccine. Other costs will be incurred such as transport, storage, insurance, staff, facilities, consumables; but the reality is, this is a very expensive future and the funds will have to come from government budgets.

I just discovered NZ is paying approx. $132 USD for both shots so that is an average of $66 USD per shot. If that became the world-wide average then the total revenue is @ 1.4 T.
This is a doubling of the entire world-wide pharmaceutical revenue with just one pandemic. I wonder how many pandemics there will be?

Ref: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125179503/budget-2021-covid19-vaccine-programme-revealed-to-cost-14-billion

What about just Vaccinating the 'At Risk' people?

It is only 'At Risk' people who are recognised as being hospitalised and at risk of potential death. Should we consider just vaccinating them? The number is approximately 15% of the NZ population = 717,164 people.

Vaccine cost would be $135 M but only take 86 days to achieve.

Rollout speed: 

2 Year Rollout?
Covid-19: Vaccine roll-out at 'real risk' of not meeting planned timetable, Auditor-General says

Questions: 

• Is there a problem in just vaccinating the 'At Risk'?
• Can we identify the at risk group?
• If it takes 2 years to roll out the vaccine solution, how many lockdowns, cases and variants are likely to evolve and has this been budgeted for?
• What is the strategy\cost for the 'next' autoimmune disease?

Is This An Ongoing Cost?

• Each time a potentially harmful virus appears, what is the health policy? Are we to avoid further pandemics by pre-emptive vaccine rollouts and will they be mandated?
• As per the flu vaccine, will people require booster shots each year?

Reference from FORBES: How Much Will A Covid-19 Vaccine Cost

This article suggests a government should be willing to pay $300 per person.

If this were true, the vaccine industry revenue could be valued equal to that of the entire oil and gas industry.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/katiejennings/2020/11/17/how-much-will-a-covid-19-vaccine-cost/?sh=60627c87576d

Conclusion 

• The costs are horrendous and NZ ability to achieve 'herd immunity goal' is at best, 2 years away.
• How are poor countries going to afford an ongoing need for vaccination?
• This vaccine strategy only covers Covid-19 and our current variants (maybe).
• There is no guarantee this will work.
• What is next?